The Federal Reserve's Impact on Mortgage Rates: What to Expect in 2024
Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have significantly impacted the housing market, pushing mortgage rates into unaffordable territory for many potential homeowners. On June 12, the Federal Open Market Committee announced it would pause its rate-hiking cycle, maintaining its benchmark interest rate in the 5.25% to 5.5% range.
However, the Fed revised its outlook for rate cuts in 2024 from three to just one. While inflation is slowly improving, it remains well above the central bank's 2% annual target, raising concerns that cutting rates too soon could spur excessive economic growth. For now, the Fed prefers to keep rates steady.
The possibility of lower interest rates later this year remains contingent on economic data, particularly inflation figures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for clear economic signals, indicating that the current policy stance will remain unless there is a convincing decline in price pressures or a significant rise in unemployment.
It is important, however, to remember that the Federal reserve is NOT the only factor affecting mortgage rates.
Economic Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates
Several key factors influence mortgage rates, including:
- Policy Changes from the Fed: Adjustments to the federal funds rate affect many economic aspects, including mortgage rates. When the cost for banks to borrow money changes, it impacts what they charge consumers.
- Inflation: High inflation typically leads to high mortgage rates as lenders set higher interest rates to compensate for the reduced purchasing power.
- Supply and Demand: High demand for mortgages often leads to higher interest rates. Conversely, when demand is low, lenders reduce rates to attract borrowers.
- The Bond Market: Fixed mortgage rates are tied to bond rates, particularly the 10-Year Treasury. High bond interest rates reduce the bond's market value, causing mortgage rates to rise.
- Other Economic Indicators: Employment patterns, investor confidence, and consumer spending also play a role. A strong economy can push mortgage rates up, while a weak economy with high unemployment tends to lower them.
What to Expect in 2024
Housing market experts predict that mortgage rates may begin to decline later in the year. However, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates until it sees inflation steadying near its 2% target. The remaining Fed meetings in 2024 are scheduled for July 30-31, September 17-18, November 6-7, and December 17-18. Most experts anticipate that any rate cuts will start no earlier than the fall and will be gradual, meaning we may not see average rates drop below 6% for some time.
While you can't control the Fed's decisions, you can secure the best available rates and terms by maintaining a healthy financial profile and comparing offers from multiple lenders. Regardless of the economic climate, the key to shopping for a mortgage is ensuring you can comfortably afford your monthly payments.
As Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation, advises, "Buying a home is the largest financial decision a person will make. If you've found a home that fits your lifestyle needs and budget, purchasing a home in today's market could be financially prudent."
The Bottom Line
When the Federal Reserve adjusts the benchmark interest rate, it indirectly impacts mortgage rates. The Fed's decision to hold rates steady won't have an immediate dramatic effect on home loan rates. Instead, mortgage rates will respond to inflation, investor expectations, and the broader economic outlook. The consensus is that mortgage rates should begin to decrease by the end of 2024.
By staying informed and prepared, you can navigate the changing landscape of the housing market and make sound financial decisions that align with your long-term goals.